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Abstract The use of digital twins (DTs) has proliferated across various fields and industries, with a recent surge in the healthcare sector. The concept of digital twin for health (DT4H) holds great promise to revolutionize the entire healthcare system, including management and delivery, disease treatment and prevention, and health well-being maintenance, ultimately improving human life. The rapid growth of big data and continuous advancement in data science (DS) and artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to significantly expedite DT research and development by providing scientific expertise, essential data, and robust cybertechnology infrastructure. Although various DT initiatives have been underway in the industry, government, and military, DT4H is still in its early stages. This paper presents an overview of the current applications of DTs in healthcare, examines consortium research centers and their limitations, and surveys the current landscape of emerging research and development opportunities in healthcare. We envision the emergence of a collaborative global effort among stakeholders to enhance healthcare and improve the quality of life for millions of individuals worldwide through pioneering research and development in the realm of DT technology. 

We are rapidly approaching a future in which cancer patient digital twins will reach their potential to predict cancer prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in individual patients. This will be realized based on advances in high performance computing, computational modeling, and an expanding repertoire of observational data across multiple scales and modalities. In 2020, the US National Cancer Institute, and the US Department of Energy, through a trans-disciplinary research community at the intersection of advanced computing and cancer research, initiated team science collaborative projects to explore the development and implementation of predictive Cancer Patient Digital Twins. Several diverse pilot projects were launched to provide key insights into important features of this emerging landscape and to determine the requirements for the development and adoption of cancer patient digital twins. Projects included exploring approaches to using a large cohort of digital twins to perform deep phenotyping and plan treatments at the individual level, prototyping self-learning digital twin platforms, using adaptive digital twin approaches to monitor treatment response and resistance, developing methods to integrate and fuse data and observations across multiple scales, and personalizing treatment based on cancer type. Collectively these efforts have yielded increased insights into the opportunities and challenges facing cancer patient digital twin approaches and helped define a path forward. Given the rapidly growing interest in patient digital twins, this manuscript provides a valuable early progress report of several CPDT pilot projects commenced in common, their overall aims, early progress, lessons learned and future directions that will increasingly involve the broader research community. 

Abstract Radiogenomics uses machine-learning (ML) to directly connect the morphologic and physiological appearance of tumors on clinical imaging with underlying genomic features. Despite extensive growth in the area of radiogenomics across many cancers, and its potential role in advancing clinical decision making, no published studies have directly addressed uncertainty in these model predictions. We developed a radiogenomics ML model to quantify uncertainty using transductive Gaussian Processes (GP) and a unique dataset of 95 image-localized biopsies with spatially matched MRI from 25 untreated Glioblastoma (GBM) patients. The model generated predictions for regional EGFR amplification status (a common and important target in GBM) to resolve the intratumoral genetic heterogeneity across each individual tumor—a key factor for future personalized therapeutic paradigms. The model used probability distributions for each sample prediction to quantify uncertainty, and used transductive learning to reduce the overall uncertainty. We compared predictive accuracy and uncertainty of the transductive learning GP model against a standard GP model using leave-one-patient-out cross validation. Additionally, we used a separate dataset containing 24 image-localized biopsies from 7 high-grade glioma patients to validate the model. Predictive uncertainty informed the likelihood of achieving an accurate sample prediction. When stratifying predictions based on uncertainty, we observed substantially higher performance in the group cohort (75% accuracy, n = 95) and amongst sample predictions with the lowest uncertainty (83% accuracy, n = 72) compared to predictions with higher uncertainty (48% accuracy, n = 23), due largely to data interpolation (rather than extrapolation). On the separate validation set, our model achieved 78% accuracy amongst the sample predictions with lowest uncertainty. We present a novel approach to quantify radiogenomics uncertainty to enhance model performance and clinical interpretability. This should help integrate more reliable radiogenomics models for improved medical decision-making.